Time-Series Momentum Strategy

Trade each instrument based on its own recent return direction

Time-Series Momentum Strategy is a systematic momentum template that ranks or measures recent price strength with absolute return over the selected lookback window, enters on positive trailing return for long exposure or negative trailing return for short exposure, and controls reversal risk with volatility-targeted stop and exposure cap per instrument. - AQR

この戦略は、一般的に公開されているテクニカル分析の概念および参考資料に基づく教育的な例として提供されています。研究およびデモンストレーション目的のみであり、投資アドバイスを構成するものではありません。

⚠️ 戦略適合性

リスク: HIGH

✅ 適している

❌ 避けるべき

🕒 時間枠

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🌍 市場

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📢 Momentum systems can suffer abrupt reversals when leadership unwinds; volatility-targeted stop and exposure cap per instrument must be explicit in the backtest.

Q: What is the core idea behind Time-Series Momentum Strategy?

The strategy measures absolute return over the selected lookback window, enters when positive trailing return for long exposure or negative trailing return for short exposure confirms persistence, and exits when the trailing return signal flips or falls below the continuation threshold.

Q: When does Time-Series Momentum Strategy usually fail?

It usually fails when recent strength is a crowded or exhausted move that reverses faster than the strategy can rebalance.

Q: How should Time-Series Momentum Strategy be backtested?

Backtest it with realistic rebalance timing, transaction costs, universe membership rules, and separate analysis for momentum crash periods.

この戦略の仕組み

市場の読み取りから取引管理までの 5 段階の意思決定フロー

Momentum Universe

Define leaders and laggards

Rank instruments or bars using absolute return over the selected lookback window

Exclude illiquid names where momentum cannot be executed after costs

Check whether recent volatility allows the signal to persist

Signal Detection

Confirm continuation pressure

Wait for positive trailing return for long exposure or negative trailing return for short exposure instead of buying every uptick

Use volatility target, trend persistence, and market regime confirmation to reject exhausted or mean-reverting moves

Prefer signals that align with broad market or sector direction

Persistence Check

Separate drift from noise

Confirm that price continues to close in the signal direction

Reject one-bar spikes that reverse before the execution window

Check turnover, trend breadth, or oscillator agreement before sizing up

Execution

Enter strength and rotate

Enter only when Position = sign(Return over N bars) produces a tested momentum setup

Exit or rotate exposure when the trailing return signal flips or falls below the continuation threshold

Avoid adding after parabolic acceleration without a fresh risk budget

Crash Control

Protect against reversals

Define volatility-targeted stop and exposure cap per instrument before entry and apply it to every rebalance

Reduce position size when volatility expands faster than expected return

Stop trading the setup after crowded momentum unwinds or gap reversals

戦略コンポーネント一覧

Time-Series Momentum Strategy

Trade each instrument based on its own recent return direction

Time-Series
Momentum

SC StratCraft

MMomentum Measure

absolute return over the selected lookback window—Strength measure

Lookback Window—Measurement period

Tradable Universe—Ranking scope

QQuality Filters

positive trailing return for long exposure or negative trailing return for short exposure—Primary setup

volatility target, trend persistence, and market regime confirmation—False-signal filter

Breadth Confirmation—Regime context

EEntry Rules

Momentum Trigger—Continuation entry

Rebalance Rule—Portfolio timing

Close Confirmation—Execution discipline

XExit Rules

Momentum Rotation—Primary exit

Trailing Exit—Profit protection

Stale Signal Exit—Dead-trade removal

RRisk Control

Reversal Stop—Hard invalidation

Volatility Sizing—Exposure control

Momentum Crash Rule—Crowding control

← 全戦略

Time-Series Momentum Strategy: Time-Series Momentum Strategy is a systematic momentum template that ranks or measures recent price strength with absolute return over the selected lookback window, enters on positive trailing return for long exposure or negative trailing return for short exposure, and controls reversal risk with volatility-targeted stop and exposure cap per instrument.
Time-Series Momentum Strategy Market Suitability: The Time-Series Momentum Strategy strategy works best in Markets where recent winners or positive return windows continue to attract capital after absolute return over the selected lookback window confirms leadership.. Liquid, tradable universes where ranking, rebalancing, and exits can be executed without excessive slippage.. Directional regimes where volatility expands with the move rather than immediately reversing it.. Traders should avoid using this strategy in Sharp reversal regimes where crowded winners unwind together.. Sideways markets where short lookback strength quickly mean-reverts.. Small or illiquid universes where rankings are dominated by noise, gaps, or stale prices.. The risk level is categorized as HIGH. Momentum systems can suffer abrupt reversals when leadership unwinds; volatility-targeted stop and exposure cap per instrument must be explicit in the backtest.
What is the core idea behind Time-Series Momentum Strategy?: The strategy measures absolute return over the selected lookback window, enters when positive trailing return for long exposure or negative trailing return for short exposure confirms persistence, and exits when the trailing return signal flips or falls below the continuation threshold.
When does Time-Series Momentum Strategy usually fail?: It usually fails when recent strength is a crowded or exhausted move that reverses faster than the strategy can rebalance.
How should Time-Series Momentum Strategy be backtested?: Backtest it with realistic rebalance timing, transaction costs, universe membership rules, and separate analysis for momentum crash periods.
absolute return over the selected lookback window: absolute return over the selected lookback window defines the observable price or return behavior used to identify momentum before any entry is allowed. Formula: Position = sign(Return over N bars)
Lookback Window: The lookback window controls how much historical movement is used to classify momentum, which directly affects turnover and signal delay. Formula: Return over N bars
Tradable Universe: A defined tradable universe prevents the strategy from selecting symbols that cannot support realistic execution or repeatable ranking. Formula: Liquidity and listing filters
positive trailing return for long exposure or negative trailing return for short exposure: positive trailing return for long exposure or negative trailing return for short exposure converts raw momentum into an actionable setup only after continuation pressure is visible. Formula: Momentum persists
volatility target, trend persistence, and market regime confirmation: volatility target, trend persistence, and market regime confirmation helps avoid buying late-stage strength or shorting late-stage weakness when the move is already exhausted. Formula: Reject weak momentum
Breadth Confirmation: Breadth confirmation asks whether momentum is supported by a broader group of instruments instead of one isolated spike. Formula: Multiple assets confirm
Momentum Trigger: The momentum trigger turns the measured strength into a rule-based order that can be reproduced in a backtest. Formula: Position = sign(Return over N bars)
Rebalance Rule: A rebalance rule defines when the strategy is allowed to refresh exposure, which is essential for avoiding hindsight-biased entries. Formula: Enter top ranks or valid signal
Close Confirmation: Close confirmation reduces the chance of entering on an intrabar burst that disappears before the bar is complete. Formula: Signal survives bar close
Momentum Rotation: Momentum rotation closes or reduces positions when the trailing return signal flips or falls below the continuation threshold, keeping capital focused on current leadership instead of stale winners. Formula: the trailing return signal flips or falls below the continuation threshold
Trailing Exit: A trailing exit protects open profits after momentum becomes profitable while leaving room for normal continuation pullbacks. Formula: Trail below swing or ATR stop
Stale Signal Exit: A stale signal exit removes trades that no longer show persistence, preventing old momentum from remaining in the portfolio by inertia. Formula: No new high or rank decay
Reversal Stop: The reversal stop defines where Time-Series Momentum Strategy is no longer a continuation setup and must be removed from the book. Formula: volatility-targeted stop and exposure cap per instrument
Volatility Sizing: Volatility sizing prevents the strongest but most unstable names from dominating total portfolio risk. Formula: Risk budget / volatility
Momentum Crash Rule: A momentum crash rule reduces exposure when many prior winners reverse together, which is a common stress scenario for momentum portfolios. Formula: De-risk after broad reversal